Thomas: 39 days of supply in ‘crazy’ home market

October 1st, 2012, 10:19 am ·  · posted by 


The latest Orange County home inventory report from Steve Thomas and was headlined “The Housing Market Is Crazy”


The biweekly study — using data as of September 27 — includes these thoughts …

The expected market time for all of Orange County is only 39 days, a low not seen since May 2005. It tends to increase with the transition from the Summer to Autumn Market, but not right now. Instead, it has been continuously dropping for the past three months. Let’s put the current market into proper perspective. A balanced market has an expected market time right around five months. At just 39 days, it is a deep sellers market.

Thomas’ signature housing measurement is his “market time” benchmark. It tracks how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic, as of September 27 — we see …

  • Market time of 1.31 months for Orange County buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 1.40 months two weeks ago vs. 3.61 months a year ago vs. 4.28 months two years ago.
  • Of the 8 Orange County pricing slices Thomas tracks, 7 had faster market time vs. 2 weeks ago; and 8 improved over a year ago.
  • Orange County homes listed for under a million bucks have a market time of 1.01 months vs. 4.59 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.
  • So, basically, it is 4.5 times harder to sell a million-dollar-plus residence!
  • And just so you know, the million-dollar market represents 30% of all homes listed and 9% of all homes that entered into escrow in the past 30 days.

Here’s the recent data for listings; deals pending; market time in months; latest vs. 2 weeks earllier, a year ago and 2 years ago. Color coding for market time is red (slowed by 5%-plus in year); green (sped up by 5%-plus in year); and yellow (in between!) Note: k=thousand; m=million …

Slice Listings Deals Market Time (months) 2 week ago 1 yr. ago 2 yr. ago
$0-$250k 538 571 0.94 1.00 2.84 3.15
$250k-$500k 1,094 1,463 0.75 0.78 2.68 3.37
$500k-$750k 895 785 1.14 1.30 3.93 4.42
$750k-$1m 591 266 2.22 2.51 6.11 5.98
$1m-$1.5m 445 148 3.01 3.23 6.85 6.90
$1.5m-$2m 264 68 3.88 4.66 10.05 12.63
$2m-4m 394 56 7.04 6.26 14.94 14.28
$4m+ 232 19 12.21 19.75 35.88 31.00
All O.C. 4,416 3,366 1.31 1.40 3.61 4.28

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