Analyst: Cheap O.C. home market ‘hot as lava’

July 23rd, 2012,  

 OC Register

The latest Orange County home inventory report from Steve Thomas and ReportsOnHousing.com — data as of July 19 includes these thoughts …

The lower ranges are as hot as molten lava. For homes priced between $250,001 and $500,000, the hottest range, the expected market time is an eye-popping 24 days. With expected market times below one month, competition is so fierce that many homes generate over 10 offers. Not only do homes sale for their full asking prices, often many are sold to buyers with “all cash offers.”

Thomas’ signature housing measurement is his “market time” benchmark. It tracks how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic, as of July 19 — we see …

  • Market time of 1.54 months for Orange County buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 1.57 months two weeks ago vs. 3.91 months a year ago vs. 3.91 months two years ago.
  • Of the 8 Orange County pricing slices Thomas tracks, 5 had faster market time vs. 2 weeks ago; and 8 improved over a year ago.
  • Orange County homes listed for under a million bucks have a market time of 1.19 months vs. 5.53 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.
  • So, basically, it is 4.7 times harder to sell a million-dollar-plus residence!
  • And just so you know, the million-dollar market represents 30% of all homes listed and 8% of all homes that entered into escrow in the past 30 days.

Here’s the recent data for listings; deals pending; market time in months; latest vs. 2 weeks earllier, a year ago and 2 years ago. Color coding for market time is red (slowed by 5%-plus in year); green (sped up by 5%-plus in year); and yellow (in between!) Note: k=thousand; m=million …

Slice Listings Deals Market Time (months) 2 week ago 1 yr. ago 2 yr. ago
$0-$250k 671 600 1.12 1.19 3.06 2.86
$250k-$500k 1,242 1,537 0.81 0.86 2.91 2.88
$500k-$750k 1,156 788 1.47 1.55 4.52 4.18
$750k-$1m 713 256 2.79 2.57 4.89 4.81
$1m-$1.5m 557 133 4.19 3.73 7.89 6.07
$1.5m-$2m 308 63 4.89 4.17 11.49 12.61
$2m-4m 460 66 6.97 9.26 17.97 21.33
$4m+ 258 24 10.75 15.59 51.00 32.82
All O.C. 5,314 3,450 1.54 1.57 3.91 3.91

 

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