5,910 fewer O.C. homesellers in a year

July 9th, 2012,  by r, OC Register

 Even with the best buying pace is six years, sellers are fleeing Orange County’s home market: The supply of housing for resale is down by 5,910 in a year, says Steve Thomas and his ReportsOnHousing.com.

The latest Orange County home inventory report from Thomas — data as of July 5 includes these thoughts …

The listing inventory dropped another 3% in the past couple of weeks. Unbelievably, the active listing inventory continued its descent, dropping an additional 148 homes in the past two weeks, totaling 5,478, levels not seen since May 2005. Since hitting the 2011 peak of 11,388 homes a year ago June, the inventory has dropped over 52%. Last year at this time there were 11,331 homes on the market. For those holding out for a surge of new listings to hit the market, it is not going to happen. The current market, with strong demand and very little inventory, has all the fundamental signs of continuing for some time. !

Thomas’ signature housing measurement is his “market time” benchmark. It tracks how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic, as of July 5 — we see …

  • Market time of 1.57 months for Orange County buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 1.53 months two weeks ago vs. 3.96 months a year ago vs. 3.78 months two years ago.
  • Of the 8 Orange County pricing slices Thomas tracks, 4 had faster market time vs. 2 weeks ago; and all 8 improved over a year ago.
  • Orange County homes listed for under a million bucks have a market time of 1.24 months vs. 5.53 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.
  • So, basically, it is 4.5 times harder to sell a million-dollar-plus residence!
  • And just so you know, the million-dollar market represents 29% of all homes listed and 8% of all homes that entered into escrow in the past 30 days.
PS: DataQuick’s tracking of closed home sales shows its been the best spring homebuying season since ’06!

Here’s the recent ReportsOnHousing data for listings; deals pending; market time in months; latest vs. 2 weeks earllier, a year ago and 2 years ago. Color coding for market time is red (slowed by 5%-plus in year); green (sped up by 5%-plus in year); and yellow (in between!) Note: k=thousand; m=million …

Slice Listings Deals Market Time (months) 2 week ago 1 yr. ago 2 yr. ago
$0-$250k 733 615 1.19 1.12 3.26 2.92
$250k-$500k 1,336 1,548 0.86 0.88 3.00 2.68
$500k-$750k 1,205 776 1.55 1.48 4.32 3.90
$750k-$1m 702 273 2.57 2.36 4.74 4.88
$1m-$1.5m 541 145 3.73 3.22 7.15 6.94
$1.5m-$2m 296 71 4.17 4.94 10.80 8.45
$2m-4m 463 50 9.26 9.60 16.82 19.83
$4m+ 265 17 15.59 17.00 102.00 34.90
All O.C. 5,478 3,482 1.57 1.53 3.96 3.78

 

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